Vietnam can reduce GHG emissions by 30% compared to BAU

Vietnam can reduce GHG emissions by 30% compared to BAU - 

On August 1, 2019, in Hanoi, the International Conference on “Pathways to Low Carbon Development for Vietnam to reach the National Determined Contributions (NDC)” a study report of World Bank in collaboration with the Department of Energy Conservation and Sustainable Development, Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) took place.

The representatives of MoIT, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, WB, many organizations, agencies and individuals which are interested in reducing the environmental impact in energy development of Vietnam participated in conference. Vietnam Energy Magazine would like to mention some of the main contents of this Report as follow:

In 2015, at the Paris International Conference COP21on combating climate change, with participation of over 190 countries, Vietnam committed to voluntarily contribute to an unconditional reduction of 8% GHG emissions and reduction up to 25% GHG emissions compared to Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in 2030 with an international assistance. This commitment is abbreviated as NDC1.

This study uses TIMES model, a simulation program for optimal calculating the energy - environmental system that has been developed from MAKAL – EFORM program and propagated by IEA-ETSAP for over 300 organizations and over 70 countries. The TIMES has also been adjusted to TIMES-Vietnam to suit the statistics of our country.

In the report, there are calculated 3 average light mitigation scenarios compared to the normal BAU scenario, including: NDC-8% scenario (8% reduction in GHG) as mentioned above, NDC-15% scenario and energy efficiency & renewable energy (EE&RE) scenario suitable to the current energy policies. At the same time, there are also calculated 3 more scenarios with an ambition to reduce GHG at higher level as NDC-20%, NDC-25% and NDC-30%.

The report considers, with the current energy policies (EE&RE), Vietnam has no difficulty to achieve GHG reduction of nearly 17.8% compared to BAU scenario in 2030 with increasing renewable energy rate to 26.6% in the power generation mix and reducing 9.3% of the total final energy consumption.

The report also shows the results of ambitious scenarios as NDC-25% and NDC-30% in case if in 2030, the energy saving rate will be reached 12.2% and 13.8% compared to BAU (higher savings target of 8 - 10% in Vietnam energy efficiency program (VNEEP3), and the rate of renewable energy will reach 30.4% and 33.5% of the total power generation mix compared to BAU; the solar power and wind power capacity will increase to 19.5 GW and 20.1 GW, and 8 GW and 8.9 GW respectively. The total costs of these ambitious scenarios decrease by nearly 14 $ billion compared to BAU due to increasing the rate of renewable energy and strong decreasing costs for fuel import. The main potential of GHG reduction comes from the power sector, industrial sectors, and then transportation.

Regarding the NDC-25% and NDC-30% scenarios, the power sector can reduce GHG from 24% and 31% mainly due to the transition from coal-fired thermal power to renewable energy, while the industrial sectors can reduce GHG from 40% and 44% mainly due to conversion from coal to gas and increasing electricity use compared to BAU.

Although the total costs of the energy system decreases in the NDC-25% and NDC-30% scenarios, but the total costs of the power sector will increase from $15.9 to $16.2 billion respectively.

The report has identified that the ambitious scenarios NDC-25% and NDC-30% would be very feasible with a condition of the international support and assistance.

There are below some main conclusions of the report:

1. Even with NDC-25% and NDC-30% scenarios, coal import will still increase rapidly. Energy import will increase by 534%, of which coal import leads with 39.4 million TOE, the crude oil and refined oil products follow with 24.1 million TOE. By 2030, energy import will exceed domestic production by 7.2 million TOE.

2. Reducing coal import and increasing the rate of renewable energy are the main components in the roadmap of GHG reduction in accordance with the NDC target.

Applying a competitive bidding mechanism for renewable energy projects to replace the FIT mechanism is a more effective solution to reduce the costs and encourage development of renewable energy.

4. Effective tool for improving energy efficiency in industry is the market of technologies and solutions.

5. Improving energy efficiency of air conditioners in the civil and commercial sectors should be a top priority.

6. The Government needs to identify energy efficiency and efficiency targets of VNEEP3 to each province and city; prioritize effective accountability in enterprises using a lot of energy to achieve the goal of VNEEP3.

The participants of the conference had many useful comments for the report so that the MoIT, MoNR and WB to complete and officially announce it in the third quarter of 2019.

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