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The proposed scenario to reduce coal demand in Vietnam for 2020 – 2030 period

The proposed scenario to reduce coal demand in Vietnam for 2020 – 2030 period - 

According to the project “The Energy Development Planning in Vietnam to 2025 with a vision up to 2035”, the primary energy demand has a number of changes: The energy development scenario (Proposed Scenario - PS) in planning period based on the GDP growth scenario in 2016 – 2035 at an average level of 7%/year in combining with energy saving rates (ESR) compared to business- as-usual (BAU) energy development scenario as 4.1% in 2020, 5.9% in 2025, 8.1% in 2030 and 10.0% in 2035, and a 15% CO2 reduction target by 2030.

In this PS, the total primary energy supply (TPES) will be increased from 80.5 million ton of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2015 to 136.8 MTOE in 2025 and 217.9 MTOE in 2035. The growth rate of TPES is 5.3%/year in 2016 – 2025 period, then reduces to 4.8%/year in 2026 – 2035 period.

Among the fossil fuels for 2016 – 2025 period, coal has highest growth rate as 7.9%/year, then natural gas and oil with 5.7%/year and 4.4%/year.

Although coal has a highest growth rate, but coal demand for domestic customers has reduced in comparison with demand volumes forecasted in BAU of the Coal Industry Development Planning to 2020 with a vision up to 2030 (Development Planning - DP 403) as follows: in 2020: 81.285 million ton vs. 86.361 million ton (reduced (-) 5 million ton); in 2025: 110.916 MT vs. 121.476 MT (- 10.5 MT); in 2030: 144.658 MT vs. 156.631 MT (-12 MT).

Coal demand for power generation (with the thermal power plants operated until 2020) has also reduced vs. demand forecasted in BAU of DP 403 as in 2020: 59.5 MT vs. 64 MT (- 4.5 MT); in 2025: 86 MT vs. 96.5 Mt (- 10.5 MT); in 2030 119 MT vs. 131 MT (- 12MT).

Regarding renewable energy (RE), the share of this energy in TPES in this project is considerably higher compared to that in BAU as 28% by 2030 and 30.1% by 2035. However, this figure does not reach the target in RE strategy, so there is a need of the policy and mechanisms to more strongly support developing RE projects in 2026 – 2035 period.

The rates of other energies in TPES are as follow: coal still occupies a large rate but rather stable in planning period as 37.3% in 2025 and 38.4% in 2035 due to the results of applying low carbon policies and promoting RE development. The hydropower energy is considerably reduced, while gasoline is still high as 20-22% and natural gas – 11-13%.

According to JEEI Outlook 2018, the coal demand per capita (TOE/capita) by 2030 will be 0.5 in the world; China: 1.48; Japan: 0.93; Korea: 1.74; Taiwan: 1.75; Malaysia: 0.86; Thailand: 0.35; USA: 0.78; Oceania: 1.18; Vietnam: 0.63.

Thus, in comparison with the world average coal demand per capita the figure of Vietnam is higher but rather lower than one in many countries in the regions, especially compared to Taiwan, Korea, China, Oceania, Japan and other countries with abundant coal source.

Based on forecast about the coal demand of 0.63 TOE/capita, the total coal demand in Vietnam by 2030 (with its population of 104 million people) could be estimated about 65.65 MTOE.

PV.

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